Retired General Says New Strikes on Iran Could Buy Time but Are Unlikely to End the War

A possible new round of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could weaken the country's capabilities, but it is unlikely to bring the war to a close, according to retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel. The former head of U.S. Central Command spoke with NPR's Leila Fadel about the objectives behind a potential post-election bombing campaign.

Votel led Central Command from 2016 through 2019 and oversaw American military operations across the Middle East. He now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Asked what fresh attacks could achieve that earlier ones did not, he said many of the likely targets have been hit before and Iran has shown it can rebuild them. Strikes, he said, can buy time, punish Tehran and degrade some of its capabilities. But so far they have not changed Tehran's calculus about where the war is headed.

Fadel pointed out that the Iranian government appears to have become more hard-line and more willing to carry out bold counterattacks and threats. Votel responded that the first requirement is a very clear objective. He said Washington must define what the end state looks like and how it will declare the war finished. In his personal view, that comes down to the enrichment issue and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Once that goal is set, Votel argued, military, economic, diplomatic and information pressure should all be aimed at achieving it. Military force is only one piece, he said, and the other elements of national power are needed as well.

He pointed to the financial front as the area with the most visible progress. The blockade and a number of sanctions are adding to the pressure, he said, and he cited reporting that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil. That approach takes time, he noted, but there is definite movement in that direction.

Votel acknowledged that the U.S. aims have been hard to read. He said much of it centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz so that oil and other commerce can move more freely, which he said would help bring down gas and diesel prices at home. The second concern, he said, is Iran's nuclear program. He added that Iran is also using proxies to create instability around the region, including a link to the Houthis on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, but he described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.

On what it would take to bring Iran to the negotiating table, Votel again stressed a clear statement of objectives, a coordinated use of military, economic and diplomatic tools, and the patience to see that approach through.

Asked how prepared the U.S. military is to keep up strikes while defending bases and partners in the Gulf, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial and that the ability to strike is not in question. The potential constraint, he said, is missile defense. Earlier reporting has described heavy pressure on defensive interceptors that protect U.S. forces, regional partners and critical infrastructure. In his assessment, offensive capability is where it needs to be, while defense may be the area facing a bit of a constraint.